Betting Knowledge

Forecasts, Tricasts, Reverse Forecasts, Reverse Tricasts – these bets involve picking horses that will finish in the top two or three positions, in a single horse race. These bets can be useful if the favourite (the horse usually most likely to finish 1st) has a low price. The winnings are usually worked out using the starting prices of the horses, using computer software.

• Forecasts (Straight)
  • In horse racing betting, if you would like to predict which horse will win, and which will will be the runner-up (i.e. finish second), you can place a Forecast (known as Exacta or Perfecta in the USA).
  • If you place a Forecast, if you get the winner right your profit AND original stake is used as the new stake for the runner-up. If you get the runner-up right as well, you will get a return.

• Tricasts (Straight)
  • If you would like to predict which horses will finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (naming the horses that will finish in each position), you can place a Tricast ((known as Trifecta in the USA).
  • Again, the winnings on the 1st horse (including stake), is used as the new stake on the 2nd horse, and the winnings on the 2nd horse (including stake) is used as the new stake on the 3rd horse.

Full Cover Bets in horse racing betting, are bets consisting of all possible doubles, trebles, and fourfold and above accumulators (if appropriate) across a given number of selections. As long as at least two of your horses win, you will get something back (although this does not necessarily mean you will profit overall).

• Trixie – Choose three horses you think will win (from three different horse races). Your bet consists of four separate bets (three doubles, and one treble). If you wish to include the 3 singles too (Trixie, plus 3 singles), the bet is called a Patent.
• Yankee – This time you pick four horses to win, from four different races. Your bet consists of six doubles, four trebles, and one fourfold accumulator. That’s 11 separate bets. If you wish to include the 4 singles too (Yankee, plus 4 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 15 (as 15 separate bets are placed).
• Canadian – Make five selections from five different races to win. 26 separate bets are placed (10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 fourfold accumulators, and one fivefold accumulator). If you wish to include the 5 singles too (Canadian, plus 5 singles), the bet is called a Lucky 31.

Accumulators allow you to combine multiple bets, and potentially win big when all your selections win. Accumulators may seem great news to casual gut instinct bettors. After all, they offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small amount gambled. However, for the value bettor who is looking to potentially make a long term profit from betting, accumulators pose a great problem! We have already discussed the notion of overround – bookmakers will want to build in a profit margin on the markets they offer. However, when overrounds are multiplied it can be a big problem for the bettor! Hence, we are posting this Mitigating accumulator overround disaster article.

Let’s say you place a double (2 selection accumulator), with both bets having an overround of 12%. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 25.44% overround

Bookmakers would love you to place this accumulator, rather than 2 single bets. As an accumulator the total overround is more than double the individual overrounds.

Let’s say you place a 4 selection accumulator, and all four bets have a 12% overround. To calculate the combined overround:

[(1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 57.35% overround

As an accumulator the total overround is a lot more than quadruple the individual overrounds.… Read the rest

Accumulators Explained: If you place a double or a treble, you have placed 2 or 3 bets respectively. ALL your bets need to win, for you to make a profit (and get your stake back). If all your bets don’t win, you lose your stake and don’t get any profit. If your first bet wins, BOTH the winnings and the stake are combined to become the stake for the second bet etc. 4 bets can be called a fourfold. 5 bets can be called a fivefold. 6 bets can be called a sixfold. Although, all the above work in the same way (all the bets have to win, for you to make a return and get your original stake back), technically only 4 bets and above are called accumulators (although some people still decide to call doubles and trebles accumulators). Accumulators suffer from overround multiplication issue.

• Let’s say you have £60 to bet in total, on 4 bets at odds of 3/1, 4/1, 5/1, and 6/1.
  If you bet £15 on each of this outcomes separately, you stand to make the following profit on each bet (and get your £15 stake back):
  • 3/1 : £45
    4/1: £60
    5/1: £75
    6/1: £90
    If all the selections won you would get £270 in profit (and get your £60 of stakes back).

Overround Explained: The odds offered by bookmakers are unlikely to correspond exactly to the actual probabilities of the outcomes in any market happening, as no bookmaker is likely to operate without trying to offset its costs (and trying to make a little something on top)! Bookmakers are likely to be taking money from lots of customers over the possible outcomes – they may try to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the result. Bookmakers may start a market by working out the actual probabilities of the outcomes in a market occurring and then incorporating a profit margin into the odds, but as money comes in on the market they will often adjust prices to attract less or more money to particular outcomes – e.g. they may want to limit their liability on an outcome they already face a big payout on if it comes through, or they may want to attract more money to different outcome(s) to one(s) they already have taken a lot of money on to guarantee a profit or minimise potential losses. How do bookmakers use overround to try and make profits?

As an example, here are the odds a bookmaker was offering, at the time of writing, on an upcoming Rugby Union match.… Read the rest

Euro 2020, the 16th edition of the Euros, starts with the opening match in Rome on Friday 11th June & ends with the final at London’s Wembley Stadium on Sunday 11th July 2021. Postponed from last year due to the pandemic, the tournament retains its original branding of ‘Euro 2020.’ 2020 would have been the 60th anniversary of this tournament, which was first held in 1960. The tournament will play out in many European cities, with the two semi-finals and the decisive final to take place at Wembley Stadium (which also hosts some earlier matches too).

In the previous 15 tournaments, Germany(inc. West Germany) & Spain can boast an hat-trick of successes, whilst France can claim a brace of victories. 7 teams have won a single tournament each.

The tournament starts with the group stages, where the 24 participating teams have been divided into 6 groups of 4. Did you know this tournament had only 4 teams from its inception, until 8 teams took part in 1980 – that lasted until 16 teams took part in 1996. Euro 2016 saw the number of teams increased to 24.

Each team will play against the other 3 teams once in their group.… Read the rest

In Handicap horse racing, the better horses are given a disadvantage. Conversely, the worse horses are given an advantage. This is done by making the horses carry different weights. A handicapper decides the weight (this weight is known as the impost) each horse should carry. The total weight of the jockey, saddle, and weights (lead) will equal the impost. The weights are carried in lead pads (saddle pads). In Great Britain, there is a central system, operated by the BHA who assign weights. Weights can change (e.g. be increased if a horse wins a race). The most famous handicap race in the world is of course the Grand National. Another example is Australia’s Melbourne Cup.

So, if the horses have been handicapped, how do you go about picking a winner?

• You could look at the horses form (e.g. past performances, giving more weight to recent performances).
• You could look at the ability of the jockey.
• Also look at the condition of the ground. If it has been raining recently, the ground may be soft. If there has been a lot of sunny/dry weather the ground may be hard. How do the horses in the race perform under the expected condition of the ground?

In National Hunt Racing, there are obstacles* on the course (as opposed to Flat racing, where there are not). The two most iconic and well-known horse races of any kind held in Great Britain, the Grand National and the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, are National Hunt races.

• The majority of the National Hunt races in Great Britain take place in the winter months, rather than summer. There is a good reason for this, as the race courses should be softer in winter (as of course there should be more rain). As horses have to jump obstacles, this makes it a lot less dangerous than in the summer months.
• National Hunt racing can take the form of either hurdles or steeplechases.
• In hurdles races the obstacles the horses must jump are hurdles. There will be a minimum of eight hurdles in any race. These hurdles have a minimum height of three and a half feet. The races are between two to three and a half miles.
  • A well known example of a National Hunt hurdles race is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which is a Grade 1 race – this race is the first race on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival.