Betting Knowledge

overround explained

Overround Explained – Why you must avoid betting markets with high overrounds!

Overround Explained: The odds offered by bookmakers are unlikely to correspond exactly to the actual probabilities of the outcomes in any market happening, as no bookmaker is likely to operate without trying to offset its costs (and trying to make a little something on top)! Bookmakers are likely to be taking money from lots of customers over the possible outcomes – they may try to guarantee themselves a profit regardless of the result. Bookmakers may start a market by working out the actual probabilities of the outcomes in a market occurring and then incorporating a profit margin into the odds, but as money comes in on the market they will often adjust prices to attract less or more money to particular outcomes – e.g. they may want to limit their liability on an outcome they already face a big payout on if it comes through, or they may want to attract more money to different outcome(s) to one(s) they already have taken a lot of money on to guarantee a profit or minimise potential losses. How do bookmakers use overround to try and make profits?

As an example, here are the odds a bookmaker was offering, at the time of writing, on an upcoming Rugby Union match.… Read the rest

moneyline odds

How do Moneyline Odds work?

We have already explained how to understand the Fractional Odds system used by UK bookmakers, as well as the popular Decimal Odds system. For completeness, we thought we would also explain the ins and outs of Moneyline Odds. This system is popular in the USA, and as such we will use dollars in the examples below (but of course the same principles apply whatever the currency). To understand Moneyline Odds, first look at if the odds are positive or negative. Then, look at the odds. Moneyline Odds are expressed per $100 staked (although of course, you should be able to bet any amount, subject to minimums or maximums).

  • POSITIVE Moneyline Odds show how much profit you will get if your bet wins, for every $100 staked (if you win you will get back your original stake too).
  • NEGATIVE Moneyline Odds show how much you will have to stake, to get $100 profit if your bet wins (if you win you will get back your original stake too).

Let’s look at two actual examples:

  • +500: this means for every $100 bet, $500 profit will be paid if your bet wins (i.e. if your bet wins they will return you original stake of $100, and pay you another $500).
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value betting gut instinct

Why is Value Betting superior to using Gut Instinct?

If you keep placing bets on outcomes of events, just because you fancy teams/players to win (Gut Instinct), without considering the odds fully then you will likely be losing money in the long run. Value betting involves independently considering if the odds offered are better than the true probability of the outcome happening, and only placing bets if that is the case. Let’s start our Why is Value Betting superior to using Gut Instinct? article off with an example:

Let’s say you are considering placing a bet in an event in which there are two outcomes only, e.g. the final of a competition where either team/player A wins, or team/player B wins (no draws possible). You need to calculate the true probabilities of the outcomes. This requires taking into account a lot of factors (prior results, injuries, officials, form etc. – variables will depend on what event you are betting on), and coming up with a statistical model (which may require, amongst other things weighting the factors).

Let’s say you calculate A wins two-thirds of the time, and B wins one-third of the time:
Two-thirds of the time is the same as odds of 1/2*, i.e. for every 1 time they don’t win, they will win 2 times.… Read the rest

sports betting bankroll management

Why is Sports Betting Bankroll Management essential?

Diligent sports betting bankroll management can be the difference between winning sports bettors, and those who are destined to lose all their money.

Here’s an example:

  • Let’s say that you have £1,000 to gamble with in total in your sports betting account with a bookmaker, but cannot replenish this money if you lose.
  • Let’s say you were betting on an event with only two possible outcomes, and the bookmaker was offering 6/5 on outcome 1, and 1/2 on outcome 2 (this is a made up example).
  • Let’s say according to your value bet calculations, you thought the true odds of each outcome was 1/1 – i.e. there is a 50% chance of outcome 1, and a 50% chance of outcome 2.
  • Of course you would want to bet on outcome 1, as you are getting better odds than required. You would never bet on outcome 2, as you are getting worse odds than required.
  • If you bet £1,000 on outcome 1, there’s nothing intrinsically wrong with the bet in terms of value. After all, you will be making £1,200 profit if outcome 1 happens!
  • However, what if outcome 2 happens? 50% of the time it will, and you will lose your stake of £1,000.
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Grand National facts

Grand National facts & top tip!

The Grand National race at Aintree in 2022 starts at 17:15 on Saturday 9th April, only a few weeks after the Cheltenham Festival. How many of these Grand National Facts do you know?

Grand National 2022 Top Tip

This tip has expired, as this event has finished.

Grand National facts

  • Jockey Rachael Blackmore rode Minella Times to victory in 2021, becoming the first female winner of this famous race.
  • The 2020 Grand National was cancelled, although the virtual version (which has exisited in recent years only) took its timeslot (and was televised on itv) – this was won by Potters Corner. Tiger Roll (jockey: Davy Russell, trainer: Gordon Elliot) won in both 2019 and 2018. In 2017 One For Arthur (jockey Derek Fox, trainer Lucinda Russell) was victorious. In 2016 Rule The World (jockey David Mullins, trainer Mouse Morris) won. Jockey Leighton Aspell won 2 years in a row (in 2015 on Many Clouds, and in 2014 on Pineau de Re).
  • The biggest starting price of a winner in recent years was in 2009 when Mon Meme (jockey Liam Treadwell) won at 100/1.
  • 13 mares have won, but the last was Nickel Coin in 1951.
  • 3 different greys have won (1 winning twice), with the last grey winner Neptune Collonges in 2012.
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cheltenham-friday

Cheltenham Friday – Races, facts, and top tip!

Cheltenham Friday Top Tip

15:30 CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP (2022): This tip has expired, as this event has finished.

Racecard (Grade 1)

7 races will take place on Cheltenham Friday – the final day of the current 4 day Cheltenham Festival calendar. In 2022, Cheltenham Friday falls on 18th March. The Cheltenham Gold Cup, which is the feature race of Cheltenham Friday, starts at 15:30.

13:30 Triumph Hurdle (Hurdles, 2 miles 1 furlong) – For Novice hurdlers. This is the leading National Hunt race, for juveniles only. Barry Geraghty’s 5 wins make him the race’s leading jockey. Nicky Henderson’s 7 wins make him the race’s leading trainer (including Pentland Hills in 2019). 4 horses who have won the Triumph Hurdle, have later gone on to win the Champion Hurdle, including Katchit (2007 Triumph Hurdle winner, 2008 Champion Hurdle winner). 2020 saw trainer Willie Mullins’ Burning Victory win, and 2021 saw Quilixios (jockey: Rachael Blackmore) win.

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Hurdles, 3 miles) – Novice hurdlers, at least 4 years old, take part. Tony McCoy is the leading jockey in this race with 3 wins – Black Jack Ketchum in 2006, Wichita Lineman in 2007, and At Fishers Cross in 2013.… Read the rest

cheltenham-thursday

Cheltenham Thursday – Races, facts, and top tip!

Cheltenham Thursday Top Tip

15:30 STAYERS’ HURDLE (2022): This tip has expired, as this event has finished.

Racecard (Grade 1)

7 races will be run on Cheltenham Thursday, the penultimate day in the current 4 day Cheltenham calendar. In 2022, Cheltenham Thursday falls on 17th March. The feature race of Cheltenham Thursday, the Stayers’ Hurdle, starts at 15:30.

13:30 Turners Novices’ Chase (Fences, 2 miles 4 furlongs) – Novice chasers, at least 5 years old, take part. Ruby Walsh is the leading jockey in this race with 3 wins – Vantour in 2015, Black Hercules in 2016, and Yorkhill in 2017. Willie Mullins was the trainer of all these horses, as well as the 2012 winner Sir Des Champs – his 4 wins make him the leading trainer in this race. 2019 saw Defi du Seuil win, jockeyed by Barry Geraghty, 2020 saw Samcro win jockeyed by Davy Russell, and 2021 saw Chantry House win, jockeyed by Nico de Boinville.

14:50 Ryanair Chase (Fences, 2 miles 5 furlongs) – Horses aged 5 years or older take part. Ruby Walsh is the race’s leading jockey with 4 wins, including on the Willie Mullins trained pair Vantour in 2016 and Un De Sceaux in 2017.… Read the rest

cheltenham-wednesday

Cheltenham Wednesday – Races, facts, and top tip!

Cheltenham Wednesday Top Tip

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE (2022): This tip has expired, as this event has finished.

Racecard (Grade 1)

7 races take place on Cheltenham Wednesday (the 2nd day of 4 of the Cheltenham Festival) under the current schedule. In 2022, the 2nd day falls on 16th March. The feature race of Cheltenham Wednesday, the Champion Chase, starts at 15:30.

13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Hurdles, 2 miles 5 furlongs) – This race features novice hurdlers, aged at least four years. Jockey Ruby Walsh has had 4 wins since 2008 in this race (Fiveforthree, Mikael d’Haguenet, Faugheen, and Yorkhill), making him the race’s leading jockey. Willie Mullins was the trainer on all these 4 occasions, making him the race’s leading trainer. In 2021, Rachael Blackmore won on Bob Olinger.

14:10 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Fences, 3 miles 1/2 furlong) – You will see novice chasers in this race, aged at least 5 years old. It is not unusual for winners of this race to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup the following year – e.g. Denman, Bobs Worth, and Lord Windermere. Trainer Willie Mullins has won this race a record 5 times, including with Monkfish in 2021.

15:30 CHAMPION CHASE (FENCES, 2 MILES) – This National Hunt steeplechase which is run on the Old Course, is the most important minimum distance allowed chase in the National Hunt year.… Read the rest