Accumulators allow you to combine multiple bets, and potentially win big when all your selections win. Accumulators may seem great news to casual gut instinct bettors. After all, they offer the chance to win a lot of money for a small amount gambled. However, for the value bettor who is looking to potentially make a long term profit from betting, accumulators pose a great problem! We have already discussed the notion of overround – bookmakers will want to build in a profit margin on the markets they offer. However, when overrounds are multiplied it can be a big problem for the bettor! Hence, we are posting this Mitigating accumulator overround disaster article.
Let’s say you place a double (2 selection accumulator), with both bets having an overround of 12%. To calculate the combined overround:
[(1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 25.44% overround
Bookmakers would love you to place this accumulator, rather than 2 single bets. As an accumulator the total overround is more than double the individual overrounds.
Let’s say you place a 4 selection accumulator, and all four bets have a 12% overround. To calculate the combined overround:
[(1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12 x 1.12) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 57.35% overround
As an accumulator the total overround is a lot more than quadruple the individual overrounds. As you can see the more selections you have, the worse it gets for the bettor.
Finally, to see if you have understood let’s look at a more complicated example. Let’s say you place a 6 selection accumulator and the bets have a 6%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 12%, and 13% overround. To calculate the combined overround:
[(1.06 x 1.08 x 1.09 x 1.10 x 1.12 x 1.13) multiplied by 100] minus 100 = 73.72% overround
As this article is titled Mitigating accumulator overround disaster, what’s the solution to mitigate this problem? You will need a bookmaker to give you a bonus on your accumulator to compensate as much as possible for the problem. In fact some bookmakers do mitigate this issue by offering bonuses on certain accumulators on certain sports (you must check all T&Cs that apply). Where a bookmaker does not offer such bonuses, we would strongly recommend staying away from accumulators – but if you must place an acca, keep your selections to the minimum!